Virginia's governor going into the 2025 elections is Glenn Youngkin (R). The race is rated Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and Toss-up by The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. All 100 House districts in the state are also holding elections. Democrats have a two-seat majority in both the House of Delegates and the Senate heading into the elections.

The Democrats' best-case scenario is to retain their trifecta in New Jersey and win a trifecta in Virginia, increasing the total number of Democratic trifectas to 16 nationwide. Virginia Democrats need to maintain their House majority and gain the governor's office to obtain trifecta control in the state. Democrats in New Jersey need to maintain both their House majority and the governor's office to retain trifecta control in the state.

The map below shows the best-case scenario for Democrats.

The Republicans' best-case scenario is to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and prevent a Democratic trifecta in Virginia. Because both states' upper chambers are controlled by Democrats and are not up for election, Republicans can not gain any trifectas.

Virginia Republicans need to maintain the governorship or gain at least one House seat to prevent a Democratic trifecta in the state. Republicans in New Jersey need to win the governor's office or gain at least 12 House seats to break the Democratic trifecta.

The map below shows the best-case scenario for Republicans.

The 2024 elections resulted in changes to the trifecta status in two states. In Michigan and Minnesota, Democratic trifectas became divided governments. Between 2010 and 2024, 82 state government trifectas were broken or gained.

Each of the seven odd-year election cycles from 2011 to 2023 produced one or two trifecta status changes. Virginia's trifecta status changed four times in that period, and New Jersey's changed once.

The chart above shows how nationwide trifecta numbers have changed between 1992 and 2025. Because newly elected officeholders are not sworn in until December of the election year or January of the following year, changes in trifecta status as a result of general elections are reflected in the following year's numbers.